How Many Dots? We Each Use Different Numbers

I don't have a mathematical formula, but I have been using ten-dots-for-four-priorities (4 dots to priority 1, 3 to priority 2, 2 to p3, 1 to p4) for several years and it seems to work on two levels. First it is easy to explain and understand and second it does give good discrimination. The resulting list of prioritised items is typically about a quarter of the total possibilities. That's not a statistical analysis - it's my raw gut sense! I have used this in communities, corporations and local government settings. Seems to work in all of them.

John Moore, Whole Systems Work Pty Ltd
Cockatoo, Victoria, Australia
john.moore@wholesystemswork.com

I have used the standard, 55 dots Delphi Method. It is a statistical procedure (described in the Users Guide), that gives you a standard curve. There are at least 4 issues, often 5 or 6 and sometimes 7, but never more than that which really have the highest weight. This is regardless of the number of issues and regardless of the number of participants. It is very predictable. In addition, you get a broad field of issues closely bunched but clearly with fewer dots than those highly weighted and always at least one that has a very low weight, sometimes two, I never had three. Using dots, even the 55, Delphi Method, by the way, takes just minutes. Regardless of how many people or issues you have, it takes no more than 10 minutes to distribute the dots. The counting, even if there are 300 on a sheet and there are 50 issues to be counted also takes no more than ten minutes (volunteer participants do this simultaneously). Time has not been a restraint in this. In other words, it can be done without computers.

Michael M Pannwitz, boscop
Berlin, Germany
http://www.michaelmpannwitz.de

"Nominal Group Technique" says that you take the number of items and divide them by 3 - each person gets that many dots - (15 items each person gets 5 dots). One rule, you can't put all of your dots on one item - if the dots are used in this way it is very effective in showing those items with the most interest across the board.

Don Ferretti
Auburn, California, USA
dferrett@placer.ca.gov

We use this all the time for convergence, as the sponsor always wants a sense of the feeling of the group. No, I don't think there is a magic formula - we seem to have 5 or 6 issues rise to the top, no matter what the number of participants, or the number of dots. We give 5 dots each - minimum - to a large group i.e. 200 or so, 7 to some, and 10 to 40-50 people. It just seems to work! As a former physicist, I'll give some thought to the math!

Eddie Palmer, Open Futures Ltd.
Edinburgh, Scotland
http://www.openfutures.com

I have only ever used five dots, regardless of the number of participants. Always comes out with a small number of items focused on, and then a gap to the other matters on the walls. Whatever of mathematics and such - and I'm not into that - it just might be that participants re able to express their opinion clearly and helpfully. That's how it seems to me, at least. And there's always a gap between the "high dotted" items and the rest. It's kind of uncanny, but it always happens. One delicacy is the difficulty participants sometimes have in dotting a whole topic or a single item of that topic report. As usual, if they ask I respond whatever seems the right thing for you. That works, too. It's their program, after all.

Fr Brian S Bainbridge
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
briansb@mira.net